Past forecast
Archived ECMWF IFS values from exactly 24, 72 and 120 hours earlier. Cards show a 2°C band around the predicted maximum from 12:00 to 18:59 local time.
TRANSPARENT METHOD
How past weather forecasts are compared with what followed
This page documents the data sources, daytime window, display bands, weather categories and scoring rules used by Forecast vs Reality.
What happened
Completed days use the actual maximum from the local 12:00–18:59 window. Today compares actual and archived forecast data only for the same elapsed hours: midnight to now before 12:00, then the elapsed part of the daytime window. The current reading remains visible but is not used separately in the score. Open-Meteo provides a model reconstruction close to observations, not a thermometer at every point.
Match score
Temperature supplies 60%. For today's same-hour intervals, any overlap scores 100; otherwise each degree of gap removes 25 points. Weather over the same elapsed hours supplies the remaining 40%.
MATCH SCORE
60% temperature + 40% weather typeThe score follows the values shown on each card; it is not an official meteorological metric.Today: the score uses only hours that have already elapsed in both the actual data and the archived forecast, and remains preliminary until the day is complete.
Weather types: The main daily type is clear, partly cloudy, cloudy, fog, rain, snow or storm. Precipitation takes priority; neighboring types count as a partial match.
Licence: Open-Meteo data are available under CC BY 4.0; hosted API access is governed separately.
Sources, licence & limitations
This site is an independent, non-commercial demonstration. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by Open-Meteo or ECMWF.
Data attribution
Weather and geocoding data are provided by Open-Meteo from open-data sources including ECMWF IFS and GeoNames, under CC BY 4.0 where applicable.
This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Copyright © 2026 ECMWF.
What this site changes
We select local daytime windows, turn model output into 2°C display bands, group weather codes into seven types and calculate the match scores shown here. These are this site’s own transformations, not official Open-Meteo or ECMWF metrics.
Accuracy and safety
Values are model forecasts and model-based historical reconstructions, not guaranteed readings from a local station. Data may be delayed, incomplete or inaccurate. Do not use this site for emergency, aviation, marine, medical or other safety-critical decisions.
Open-Meteo, ECMWF and GeoNames provide the data without warranties and accept no liability for errors, omissions, availability, or loss or damage arising from its use.
Location and privacy
Approximate location may be inferred from network data without browser geolocation permission. The app stores your language, selected places and display period in this browser, but has no app database for IP addresses. The hosting service may process normal request logs; selected coordinates are sent to Open-Meteo to fetch weather. Cookie-free Cloudflare Web Analytics measures anonymous visits and page performance. See the hosting privacy policy and Open-Meteo Terms.
The free Open-Meteo API is used for a non-commercial site without advertising or subscriptions. Commercial or promotional use requires an appropriate API plan.